The Crystal Ball, the report of University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, is tracking 7 of New York’s 27 Congressional districts which he views as in play. He rates only two as toss ups, the seats currently held by Republicans John Faso and Claudia Tenney in eastern and central New York. He rates two other seats held by Republicans Lee Zeldin of Long Island and Dan Donovan from Staten Island as “leaning Republican.” One Democrat, Sean Patrick Maloney, is rated as “likely Democrat.” Maloney is also trying to win the September primary for State Attorney General. If he were to win the primary, Democrats would have to find a new candidate in the Congressional district very quickly and that could change the status of the race.
The districts of two Republicans, Tom Reed and John Katko in central New York and the Southern Tier, are considered to be “likely Republican.” All the remaining New York House seats are considered “safe” for the incumbents or the party holding them. That includes the seat in the Rochester area of the late Louise Slaughter which is considered safe for the Democrat winning the September primary. New York State Assembly Majority Leader Joe Morelle is considered the front runner in that district.
Sabato’s most recent report on his website now is giving Democrats a better than 50-50% chance to take control of the House of Representatives in November. Democrats need to take over 23 Republican seats to win the House majority.